Insights

Winning insights for the field and the boardroom

Features on how we like to think about the strategy and business of winning.

Football Financial Model

Pricing the post-promotion gamble.

Sunderland and Paris FC both answered promotion by spending up. The model prices what that decision actually costs — the annual wage step, the impact if the drop comes anyway, and what a European season pays back.

Result

The wage step, the drop and the upside — priced.

England & France · Tier 1 Read study

Relegation odds · Year 1 by wage level 5-Year Probabilities

Top-half5%

Bottom-half18%

Relegation-level60%

Probability of relegation in Year 1, by squad wage level.

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Football Financial Model

The top-half trap.

Top-half wages buy security from relegation — risk falls from over half to a fraction of that. The model prices what that safety costs: an operating loss in every one of the Big 5 leagues, carried every season without European football.

Result

The risk, the logic, and the extent of the losses — in all five leagues.

Big 5 leagues · Tier 1 Read study

Pre-Trading Net · a top-half season P&L summary

(€20.8M)

England

(€28.7M)

France

(€45.7M)

Germany

(€38.2M)

Italy

(€57.7M)

Spain

Top-half wages, at 38,000 seat capacity, by league.

Football Financial Model

Diligence on a Belgian Tier 2 club.

An investor bullish on Belgium wants the year-to-year reality of running a competitive Tier 2 club — before spending real money on diligence. Stadium size impact, promotion odds and three-year branches, priced.

Result

Revenue more than doubles from 5,000 seats to 15,000, but expect losses.

Belgium · Tier 2 Read study

Non-Trading Revenues · by stadium size P&L summary

€1.1M

5,000 seats

€1.9M

10,000 seats

€2.5M

15,000 seats

Belgium Tier 2, top-half wages.