Alchemy Sports Ventures ALCHEMY SPORTS VENTURES
Insights

Winning insights for the field and the boardroom

Features on how we like to think about the strategy and business of winning.

Football Financial Model

Sustainability of EPL promotion spending.

All three clubs promoted to the Premier League spent big this summer on transfers — €170.7M net on average. The model prices the worst case of one season up and two seasons down, and finds operations near break-even, with compliance needing just €39.3M of player sales.

Result

Headline investment, but attainable compliance — a reasonable risk for the upside.

England · Tier 1 Read study
Operating Net · the three-year worst case P&L summary
Year 1Year 2Year 3
Tier 1 2 2
Operating Net (€6.3M) €15.3M €4.9M
One season up, two seasons down — and operations land near break-even.
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Football Financial Model

Pricing the post-promotion gamble.

Sunderland and Paris FC both answered promotion by spending up. The model prices what that decision actually costs — the annual wage step, the impact if the drop comes anyway, and what a European season pays back.

Result

The wage step, the drop and the upside — priced.

England & France · Tier 1 Read study
Relegation odds · Year 1 by wage level 5-Year Probabilities
Top-half5%
Bottom-half18%
Relegation-level60%
Probability of relegation in Year 1, by squad wage level.
Football Financial Model

The top-half trap.

Top-half wages buy security from relegation — risk falls from over half to a fraction of that. The model prices what that safety costs: an operating loss in every one of the Big 5 leagues, carried every season without European football.

Result

The risk, the logic, and the extent of the losses — in all five leagues.

Big 5 leagues · Tier 1 Read study
Pre-Trading Net · a top-half season P&L summary
(€20.8M)
England
(€28.7M)
France
(€45.7M)
Germany
(€38.2M)
Italy
(€57.7M)
Spain
Top-half wages, at 38,000 seat capacity, by league.
Football Financial Model

Diligence on a Belgian Tier 2 club.

An investor bullish on Belgium wants the year-to-year reality of running a competitive Tier 2 club — before spending real money on diligence. Stadium size impact, promotion odds and three-year branches, priced.

Result

Revenue more than doubles from 5,000 seats to 15,000, but expect losses.

Belgium · Tier 2 Read study
Non-Trading Revenues · by stadium size P&L summary
€1.1M
5,000 seats
€1.9M
10,000 seats
€2.5M
15,000 seats
Belgium Tier 2, top-half wages.